Deutsche Bank's Gold Fair Value Is $4,700: What the Model Says About This Explosive Price Phase

Deutsche Bank's commodities team has put a number on gold's fair value: $4,700 per ounce by year-end 2026, roughly 16% above the $4,063 spot price on August 4. Analyst Michael Hsueh's work, published August 3, confirms that gold remains inside what the bank classifies as a rare "explosive price phase," only the fifth such episode in the metal's history since 1975, and the statistical test anchoring that classification still sits above its critical threshold.

Key Takeaways Deutsche Bank analyst Michael Hsueh's model places gold fair value at $4,700/oz, 16% above the August 4 spot price of $4,063. The bank's BSADF statistical test reads 1.3, still above the 95% critical value, confirming the ex…