Will the Fed hike again in December after the October CPI?

October’s inflation print did not just move the Federal Reserve’s December meeting into sharper focus; it largely settled the outcome. Headline consumer prices rose 0.4% month over month and core prices rose 0.3% for a third straight month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ news release of Nov 10. By Wednesday morning the market had repriced the December 25-basis-point hike at roughly 89% on CME FedWatch and 86% on Kalshi’s KXFEDDECISION contract, with a rising tail to a larger move. What the print did not settle is the regime underneath that decision: producer prices land Friday, the money supply is re-accelerating, and for the first time in years the BLS cannot tell markets what…