Bitcoin ETF Flows Stay Negative as De-Risk Cuts BTC to $75,450

Bitcoin heads into Friday near $75,450, down roughly 6% in 24 hours, after a Wall Street-led de-risk unwound the post-election relief rally and forced the heaviest leveraged flush in months. The trigger was not crypto-specific. A tech- and AI-led selloff erased about $3 trillion from U.S. stocks, with the S&P 500 down roughly 3.8%, and that risk-off spilled straight into digital assets. CoinGlass counted about $1.08 billion in leveraged crypto liquidations in the 24 hours into the U.S. session, roughly 90% of it long positions, with about $900 million of the damage packed into a four-hour window.

The week moved in three acts. Bitcoin opened Monday near $78,300 still under the shadow of the record Binance hot-wallet theft, a roughly $6.3 billion loss disclosed October 29 that the exchange said it had moved to replenish about 95% of. That episode produced the largest single-session spot-ETF outflow in a month on October 30, minus $643.3 million, and set a cautious tone. Then Democrats swept both houses of Congress, and the relief bid was immediate: after dipping toward $75,700 on election morning, Bitcoin recovered to trade above $80,000 Thursday, briefly printing a new week-high near $80,700 before fading.

Related reading: Bitcoin Range-Bound Near $63,300 as ETF Flows Turn Negative.

The unwind came Thursday afternoon, and it came from equities rather than any crypto-specific event. A selloff led by AI and chip shares, on post-election uncertainty and renewed doubts about the AI capex boom, took the S&P 500 down about 3.8% and erased roughly $3 trillion in U.S. market value. That rout flowed into crypto, and the leverage built during the relief squeeze came out. Liquidations topped $1.08 billion, about 90% of them long positions, pushing Bitcoin to a weekly low near $75,572 and driving Ethereum to about $2,239 as ether fell 8.3% over 24 hours, a sharper drop than Bitcoin's 6%.

The flow tape says this is a liquidity trade, not accumulation

The institutional data never caught up with the relief-rally price. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs were net negative every session this week except a single +$74.6 million day Wednesday: minus $398.6 million Monday, minus $115.6 million Tuesday, plus $74.6 million Wednesday, and minus $49.9 million Thursday, per TFTC/Farside and CoinGlass. November month-to-date is running near minus $490 million, and cumulative flows since the January 2024 launch sit at roughly $56.5 billion. The rally to $80,000 was not backed by ETF creations, and the Thursday flush is the latest evidence that price without flow support tends to fade in this regime. A short squeeze built on optimism, not on creations, leaves nothing underneath when the broader market turns.

For the broader framework, see our bitcoin coverage.

Related reading: BTC ETF Flows Turn Negative as SEC Delays Reg Crypto Meeting.

Ethereum shows the same pattern more starkly. Spot ether ETFs ran seven straight net-outflow sessions before a modest +23.3K ETH inflow Wednesday, yet ether still fell more than Bitcoin into the flush. That relative weakness, consistent with ether serving as leveraged DeFi collateral, is why ETH's 8.3% decline outpaced Bitcoin's 6%.

On-chain balances reinforce the read. Aggregate stablecoin supply is roughly $296 billion, flat against about $295 billion a day earlier, with Tether at about $177 billion and USDC at about $71 billion, according to DeFi Llama. Dry powder is not growing, so this week's move is a rotation of existing liquidity and a de-leveraging flush rather than new capital entering the asset class. The one genuinely constructive signal is ether's exchange supply, which has fallen to about 15.5 million ETH, a multi-year low according to CryptoRank: a long-run supply tailwind that has not yet translated into price support in a week when ether underperformed. Set the two together and balances that could tighten under supply are being outweighed for now by the absence of fresh fiat-side dry powder and by forced long unwinds.

Related reading: Bitcoin ETF Flows Turn Negative: $1.25B Outflows Into CPI.

Regulation cut both ways this week. The Democratic sweep is a macro relief, since markets priced higher odds of de-escalation and softer energy, but it complicates the market-structure agenda: the Clarity Act faces a materially harder path under the new majorities seated January 3, as CoinDesk reported. Tokenization and stablecoin payments, though, have enough momentum under existing law to keep moving regardless: the GENIUS Act, passed with bipartisan support, takes effect January 18, and SEC and CFTC rulemaking has advanced without sweeping legislation. So the institutional-facing corners, stablecoins and tokenized funds, look more insulated than the speculative segments waiting on a clarity bill.

The macro anchor is unchanged and hawkish. The Fed held the funds rate at 3.75% to 4.00% at its October 28 meeting, per NPR, and with a December hike the live question, the October payrolls report due later today is the deciding input, with consensus near 63,000 jobs. A hot print would firm hawkish expectations and likely extend the flush; a soft one would support the risk-on narrative underpinning the relief rally. Crypto's elevated correlation with the Nasdaq and the dollar makes this print the swing factor for the week ahead.

Related reading: Bitcoin ETF Flows Slide Below $77,000 on 2nd Outflow Day.

What to watch

The bear case is straightforward. ETF flows are net-negative for the month, there was no institutional bid behind the relief high, and with stablecoin dry powder flat the move is liquidity and deleverage rather than accumulation. A hot payrolls read could flip the macro bid and extend the flush below the weekly low, with Bitcoin's next watched support near $75,000, which coincides with a closely watched Nasdaq low. There is also the regulatory tail: a Congress that proves tougher on crypto could reprice the speculative segments regardless of the macro path, and ether's structural underperformance suggests leveraged DeFi collateral keeps getting sold into any bounce.

The bull case leans on structure. The relief-rally high above $80,000 was real, even if it was not confirmed by ETF inflow, and ether's exchange supply at a multi-year low is a dividend that could matter once forced selling abates. A soft payrolls print would validate the risk bid and could bring ETF inflows back on the next bounce, giving the market the institutional validation the relief spike never had.

Net, the institutional flow tape still says trade the liquidity until proven otherwise. Watch today's payrolls, then whether ETF inflows follow the next bounce. If creations resume on a recovery, the flush reads as a violent but contained de-leveraging; if flows stay net-negative while price bounces, this remains a market skating on borrowed time.

This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.