The Weekend Brief: The $2 Trillion Bet and When the AI Capex Cycle Breaks
Microsoft's stock gained $480 billion in market capitalization last week after the company reported quarterly results that showed AI products generating real, measurable revenue. That is the largest single-week value creation in the company's history. And almost simultaneously, Chris Wood at Jefferies published a note warning that the broader AI infrastructure spending binge "may burn billions as markets turn against Big Tech." Both things happened. Both can be true. The question that matters for anyone allocating capital right now is which one is the signal and which one is the noise, and the answer requires understanding how infrastructure cycles work, not how this week's headlines read. K…
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