Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

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Macro

Fed Holds at 3.50%-3.75%: FRED Data Signals Soft Landing, But NFP Is the Test

The FOMC's 9-3 vote is the most divided since 2016. FRED data backs the soft-landing thesis. Friday's July NFP is the variable that decides September.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 6, 20264 MIN READ

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Macro

FOMC Dissent and Stagflation Signals: The September Rate Question Takes Shape

Three FOMC members voted for an immediate rate hike on July 29, and CME FedWatch now prices a 56.9% probability of a September hike. With Q2 GDP at 1.5% and June payrolls at 57,000, the stagflationary data configuration puts the Fed in its most difficult position of the current cycle.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 5, 20264 MIN READ

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MacroboltSpecial Coverage

June JOLTS: 7.359M Openings Miss Adds to Labor Softening Case

June JOLTS job openings came in at 7.359 million, missing the 7.420 million consensus by 61,000. Combined with a downward revision to May and the June payrolls miss, the data describes a labor market cooling faster than anticipated.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 4, 20265 MIN READ

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MacroboltSpecial Coverage

June JOLTS Came in at 7.359M, Missing Estimates as Labor Market Cools Further

June job openings printed at 7.359 million, a 61,000 miss vs the 7.420 million consensus. With a downward May revision and payrolls already soft at +57,000, the demand-side picture has shifted ahead of the September FOMC decision.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 4, 20265 MIN READ

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Macro

Three Fed Dissents Signal a Hike Is Closer Than Markets Think

Three FOMC members voted for an immediate rate hike on July 29. With the 2-year Treasury pricing in cuts, the market is betting against them. Here is why that gap matters.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 3, 20261 MIN READ

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Macro

The First US-Japan Joint Yen Intervention Since 2011: What It Means for Rates and the Dollar

The US Treasury joined Japan in buying yen for the first time since 2011 after USD/JPY hit 163, a 40-year low. Sarah Chen examines the Treasury yield feedback loop, carry trade mechanics, and what comes next.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 2, 20265 MIN READ

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Macro

July NFP and the September Rate Cut: What This Week Decides

July NFP consensus +88K, AMD Q2 earnings $11.2B, ISM PMI, and Fed Governor Cook's speech will determine September rate-cut odds. Full week-ahead preview.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 2, 20264 MIN READ

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Macro

The Weekend Brief: The $2 Trillion Bet and When the AI Capex Cycle Breaks

Big Tech AI spending commitments have crossed $2 trillion. Microsoft gained $480 billion in market cap in a week. Chris Wood at Jefferies warns of capital destruction. Here is the structural read on where this cycle actually stands.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 2, 20261 MIN READ

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MacroboltSpecial Coverage

Q2 2026 Employment Cost Index: What It Means for Fed Policy

The Q2 2026 ECI came in at +0.9% q/q, beating the +0.8% consensus, but the year-over-year rate fell to 3.3%, below expectations. Benefits costs decelerated sharply from +1.8% to +0.9%. The split print keeps a September rate hike in play without locking it in.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 31, 20265 MIN READ

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Macro

PCE Soft Landing or Fed Trap? June Inflation Data and the Dollar's Next Move

June PCE printed 3.7% year-over-year and the dollar sold off. With oil above $100/bbl threatening to reverse the energy-driven dip, here is what the data actually signals.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 31, 20262 MIN READ

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MacroboltSpecial Coverage

GDP Q2 2026: Economy Grew 1.5%, Missing the 2.1% Mark

The BEA reported Q2 2026 real GDP grew 1.5% annualized, missing the 2.1% consensus. June PCE inflation fell to 3.7% year-over-year, stepping below 4% for the first time since February.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 30, 20265 MIN READ

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MacroboltSpecial Coverage

June PCE +3.7% y/y: What the Fed's Favorite Inflation Gauge Means Now

June PCE came in at -0.1% m/m and +3.7% y/y, matching headline consensus. The detail that matters: core PCE printed +0.1% m/m, a tick below the +0.2% expected. Released alongside a Q2 GDP advance of +1.5%, the data confirm a cooling but still-elevated inflation picture.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 30, 20264 MIN READ