PCE Soft Landing or Fed Trap? June Inflation Data and the Dollar's Next Move
June PCE inflation printed 3.7% year-over-year on Friday, July 31, and the dollar fell. The monthly reading came in at -0.1%, putting the Fed's preferred price gauge below 4% for the first time since February. Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, clocked 3.3% annually, a touch below consensus. On the surface, this looks like progress. Key Takeaways June PCE headline came in at 3.7% year-over-year and -0.1% month-over-month, below the 4% threshold for the first time since February 2026. Core PCE printed 3.3% annually, below expectations, driving a dollar selloff on July 31. Oil above $100 per barrel threatens to push PCE back above 4% by August, making Friday's relief potentially short…
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