Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

Close-up of stacked gold bars with visible scratches, dark background suggests a vault or safe.

Commodities

Gold at $4,137 as $4,000 Floor Holds on Three Tests

Gold futures (GC=F) are at $4,136.80 on July 22, recovering off the late-June low near $3,959 after a 28% correction from January's $5,595 record. Three tests of $4,000 held.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 22, 20262 MIN READ

Close-up of a golden Bitcoin coin and a silver Ethereum coin standing upright on a reflective dark surface.

Crypto

Bitcoin Climbs to $65,700 as ETF Inflows Stabilize; Ethereum Surges on Record BlackRock Flows

Bitcoin rose 2.5% to $65,699 on July 21 as spot ETF inflows stabilize. Ethereum surged 4% to $1,929 on a record $489M single-day ETHA inflow from BlackRock.

Priya Kapoor smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 21, 20262 MIN READ

A metallic robot hand interacting with a smartphone displaying a QR code, set against a dark background with server racks.

Crypto

AI Agents Will Need Banks. Blockchain Is First in Line.

Animoca co-founder Yat Siu argues blockchain is the only financial system that can serve AI agents. With 50-200B agents projected by 2031, Ethereum and stablecoins are the structural beneficiaries.

Priya Kapoor smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 21, 20264 MIN READ

A bright green arrow pointing upwards and a bright red arrow pointing downwards, against a dark gray background.

Equities

SPY at $742 as Earnings Season Peaks: What Market Internals Are Saying

SPY slipped to $742.09 Monday as eight of eleven S&P 500 sectors declined. Q2 earnings are tracking at 24.7% growth, but tech leadership is narrowing ahead of Alphabet and Tesla's Wednesday reports.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 21, 20262 MIN READ

Several large oil tankers and smaller warships navigate a calm sea at sunrise or sunset, with warm light reflecting on the water.

Commodities

Oil Crosses $90 on Iran Escalation: Energy and Metals Levels to Watch

Oil crossed $90 per barrel on US-Iran military escalation and Houthi threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping. USO gained 1.25% to $125.51 while gold (GLD) held flat at $367.60. Here are the levels energy and metals traders are watching.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 21, 20262 MIN READ

An illustration of a light-grey broken conical flask on a grey circular base, with three light-yellow and beige pills falling out, against a dark blue textured background.

Equities

Quantum BioPharma's Third Debt Settlement in Two Years Points to a Pattern, Not a One-Off

QNTM's latest CAD$123,487 debt-for-equity swap is its third since 2024, while an FDA clinical hold on Lucid-MS and a 75% cash burn in six months compound the picture.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 21, 20261 MIN READ

Illustration of a gold gasoline pump on the left, aiming towards a large golden circle containing a blue water drop above a bank building.

Macro

June CPI Surprise and What It Means for the July 29 FOMC Decision

Headline CPI fell to 3.5% on a gasoline price collapse, but Fed Chair Warsh is not declaring victory. The Iran wild card may reverse everything by August.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 20, 20265 MIN READ

A golden physical Bitcoin coin stands upright on a reflective surface, with two blurred figures in suits in the background.

Crypto

Bitcoin Holds $64K After Four Straight Days of ETF Inflows

Bitcoin holds $64,079 as four consecutive days of ETF inflows totaling $500.2M reverse the June outflow cycle. Key levels, macro context, and what to watch next.

Priya Kapoor smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 20, 20265 MIN READ

Several stacked shiny gold bars filling the frame, with ambient lighting from above in what appears to be a vault.

Commodities

Gold at $4,019: HSBC Cuts Forecast as Fed Hawkishness Meets Central Bank Demand

HSBC cut its 2026 average gold forecast to $4,560/oz, citing a hawkish Federal Reserve and a stronger dollar. Gold trades around $4,019 today, down 28% from January's record of $5,594. The CFTC's latest positioning data tells a nuanced story about what comes next.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 20, 20265 MIN READ

A silhouetted oil pump jack in a field at sunset, with a large refinery visible in the hazy background against a warm sky.

Equities

Energy Bucks the Selloff as VIX Climbs to 18.77

SPY closed at $743.29 (-0.99%) on July 20 as VIX climbed to 18.77, but the selloff is concentrated in Tech and Communication Services. Energy bucks the trend, up 1.16%, in what is now the third week of sector rotation ahead of peak Q2 earnings.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 20, 20265 MIN READ

Aerial view of numerous large oil tankers navigating a narrow strait with rocky, barren coastlines under a hazy, sunlit sky.

Macro

Iran-Hormuz Risk Frames a Packed July 20 Week

Iran-Hormuz tensions drove Friday's Dow -400. Here is the setup for July 20 week: oil levels, Alphabet/Tesla earnings, Bitcoin $62,500 support, gold at $4,000.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 19, 20265 MIN READ

A vast industrial construction site at dusk with scaffolding, cranes, and workers, illuminated by bright lights against a sunset sky.

Macro

The $700 Billion Bet: When AI Capex Meets the Inflation Ceiling

Tech giants committed $700B to AI data centers while Nvidia sold off and a TS Lombard economist urged Fed tightening. What the week's signals mean for rates, equities, and energy.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 19, 20268 MIN READ