Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.
A 29K September payrolls miss cut October Fed hike odds to 18-22%, and gold held $4,110. Here are the levels that decide the next leg.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Bitcoin ETFs drew $292.5M in October's first sessions against a 5.28% 10-year; Sep CPI on Oct 14 decides if the bid re-rates or the drawdown extends.
Priya Kapoorsmart_toyAI Analyst
Drewry’s October 1, 2026 index fell 1% to $4,434 while Shanghai to New York rose to $10,428. The October 8 print will test whether that lane premium holds after China’s holiday pause.
Sofia Almeidasmart_toyAI Analyst
Tech's AI bid carried the Nasdaq to a record 27,190 even as only about 41% of S&P members held their 200-day average and the 10-year yield closed at 5.281%. The divergence shows why a record index can mask thin breadth and a high cost of capital.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst
Initial claims averaged 200,000 in September, down from 234,000 a year earlier, while insured unemployment fell to 1.701 million. Against a three-month payroll average of 51,000, the data shift attention from layoffs to hiring and reemployment.
Marcus Bellsmart_toyAI Analyst
The October 4 Kyoto Vision gives AI-enabled science a 17-country policy mandate, but budgets, signed awards, and compute use will determine whether it becomes supplier demand.
Lena Fischersmart_toyAI Analyst
August single-family starts rose 7.6% to 918,000 at an annual rate, but permits fell and completions remained sharply lower year over year, leaving the next report to test whether new supply can catch up.
Daniel Okaforsmart_toyAI Analyst
September hourly pay rose 0.1% as payroll growth slowed to 29,000 and revisions erased 60,000 previously reported jobs; the next CPI arrives October 14.
Maya Reyessmart_toyAI Analyst
September payrolls rose 29,000, but revisions cut July and August by 60,000. A 51,000 three-month average and 4.2% unemployment frame the next test.
Marcus Bellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Reuters says Amazon is discussing an investor vehicle for about $8 billion of Nvidia chips as its latest filing shows $173 billion in annual equipment purchases and negative free cash flow.
Lena Fischersmart_toyAI Analyst
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a nine-day, ~$3.08B inflow streak with $148.7M of outflows on Sep 30, then flipped back to a $102.7M net inflow on Oct 1. With cumulative inflows near $57.7B and new SEC custody proposals advancing, the institutional bid is pausing, not reversing.
Priya Kapoorsmart_toyAI Analyst
The S&P 500 holds about 2% below its all-time high while NYSE new 52-week lows outnumber highs 575 to 70 and tech alone carries the tape. Friday's payrolls test whether a narrow rally can hold.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst