197,000 Claims Meet a 51K Payroll Pace

Initial jobless claims stayed at 197,000 in the week ending September 26, and their four-week average fell to 200,000, according to the Department of Labor's October 1 release . That is a reassuring read on new layoffs, but it does not describe a healthy hiring market. The more useful interpretation is that employers are still reluctant to cut broadly even as the recent hiring pulse has weakened. Claims show the inflow of newly unemployed workers, not how quickly they find a new job. The next test is whether that separation between low job loss and weak hiring persists in October.

Key Takeaways Initial claims were 197,000 for the week ending September 26, while the four-week average was 200,0…