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August Starts Rise, but Permits and Completions Lag

Daniel Okafor
Daniel OkaforHousing Correspondent
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published October 5, 20266 min read
An unfinished timber-framed house stands on a suburban lot, with finished houses blurred in the distance.
A home under construction illustrates the gap between projects started and homes ready for buyers. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Census and HUD’s August construction report, released September 17, delivered a split signal: single-family starts rose 7.6% from July, yet permits declined and completions fell 27.1% from a year earlier. This is less a clean building rebound than a pipeline handoff problem. If starts do not translate into permitted projects and finished homes, new supply may stay constrained even as higher mortgage costs weaken the pool of buyers.

Key Takeaways Freddie Mac’s 30-year average rose to 7.28% on October 1, up 0.94 percentage points from October 1, 2025. MBA applications fell 6% in the week ended September 25, while its purchase index fell 14% year over year. Census counted 8.5 months of new-home…

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