Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

Silver ingots sit beside gold ingots and a glass vessel of crude oil on a dark worktable.

workspace_premiumPremium

Commodities

Silver price logs worst close since Nov; ratio at 74

Silver price settled at its weakest close since November 2025, about 50% off its January record, while gold gave back 2.8% Thursday toward the $4,000 shelf and crude ran to a five-month high. A genuine inflation trade would bid the metals alongside oil; selling them into that spike reads as position de-risking, and the gold silver ratio at ~74 against a ~60 mean flags silver oversold on a relative basis.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 23, 20269 MIN READ

An unmarked diesel tanker approaches a refinery terminal across a harbor at dusk.

workspace_premiumPremium

Commodities

Russia Diesel Supply Stays Fragile as US Deal Reopens Flows

US diesel sits near $6.18, up 69% year over year, as Rosneft calls refinery-strike losses unsustainable and a US-brokered deal reopens Russian product flows.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 23, 202625 MIN READ

An unmarked crude oil tanker crosses a narrow sea passage at dusk.

workspace_premiumPremium

Commodities

Brent price near $115 as Hormuz conflict premium holds: Brent-WTI spread stays near $13.7

Brent traded near $114.89 in Friday trading, up about 1.5 percent on the day with a session high of $115.00, as the Brent-WTI spread held near $13.67, essentially flat against Thursday's $13.70 settle. CNBC and Reuters reported Houthi strikes on Saudi energy; no barrels confirmed offline.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 23, 20265 MIN READ

Oilfield wellhead and pipeline valves stand in a desert, with production structures on the hazy horizon.

workspace_premiumPremium

Commodities

Brent Oil Price Jumps Toward $111 as US-Israel Iran Strike Plans and Houthi Shaybah Attack Return

Two barrels of headline risk are stacking again: the New York Times reports the US and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes on Iran, and a Houthi drone strike on Aramco's Shaybah field keeps the freight and war-risk bid elevated on top of an already-heavy ~$20 premium.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 22, 20269 MIN READ

Unmarked gold bars sit in sharp focus on a vault shelf, with silver bars behind them.

workspace_premiumPremium

Commodities

Gold price pulls back to $4,103 as the 10-year and a priced December hike cap the metals

Gold eased to ~$4,103 (-1.13%) as a ~5.1% 10-year and a December hike that is roughly 90%-plus priced put real competition in front of silver and gold. The structural bid is still there: Poland's ~25t September addition and China's 23rd straight month of buying keep a floor under both metals.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 22, 20269 MIN READ

Unmarked gold bars rest on a shelf inside a dimly lit vault.

workspace_premiumPremium

Commodities

Gold price holds $4,135 as central-bank buying offers the floor

Gold trades near $4,135.90 on Wednesday, a third straight down session, as ~92% December-hike odds and a 5.09% 10-year Treasury cap the non-yielding metal while official-sector buying keeps a floor underneath.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 21, 202610 MIN READ

An unmarked oil tanker crosses a narrow shipping lane beneath a hazy coastline.

workspace_premiumPremium

Commodities

Brent oil price tops $110 as Hormuz and Houthi strikes bite

The premium is in the products and the freight, not the barrel: diesel holds an $80-plus spread over Brent even as a dated Russian release puts a ceiling under the rally.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 21, 20269 MIN READ

Refinery distillation towers and storage tanks stand under warm lights at dusk.

workspace_premiumPremium

Commodities

Refinery strikes hold Brent near $110 as diesel sets records

Brent holds near $110 as Ukraine’s resumed refinery strikes tighten the product market and a US-Russia diesel-release deal works to cap cracks.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 20, 202627 MIN READ

A gold bar and silver bars rest on a dark shelf, with crude oil and a copper coil softly blurred behind them.

workspace_premiumPremium

Commodities

Gold price and silver at records into a hawkish Fed: what's driving the metals bid

Gold holds at $4,175 and silver near $58 even as the market prices a 92% chance of a December Fed hike. The trick is what softened: oil, not rate expectations. Copper rides China's 4.5% Q3 beat and drawing LME stocks. Here is the bull case, the bear case, and the December caveat.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 19, 20267 MIN READ

Oil storage tanks at dusk, with a tanker offshore and a faint plume of smoke in the distance.

workspace_premiumPremium

Commodities

Russia sanctions waiver keeps crude capped near $97-108 despite Ukraine's largest drone raid

Crude closed lower after Ukraine's largest drone raid yet on St Petersburg because Washington waived Russia sanctions. The war premium moved down the barrel: distillate stocks sit 12% below seasonal norms and heating oil near $4.61.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 19, 202624 MIN READ

Refinery processing units and storage tanks at dusk, with a small industrial flare in the distance.

workspace_premiumPremium

Commodities

Energy Ceasefire Collapse: Diesel Crack Holds Near $113

Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire collapsed within a week as Ryazan refinery strikes resumed; the diesel crack near $113 now carries the conflict premium.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 16, 202625 MIN READ

Gold bars glow in a vault beside a view of an oil tanker at sea.

workspace_premiumPremium

Commodities

Gold price rebounds to $4,158 as the dollar slips; crude pulls back as Hormuz risk meets freight relief

Gold rebounded 1.3% to about $4,158 an ounce as the dollar slipped off an 18-month high, while crude reversed its gain as easing shadow-fleet sanctions met Hormuz attack risk. Hot September CPI, and a Fed that says it will wait, is the swing factor for both.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 15, 20264 MIN READ