Russia Diesel Supply Stays Fragile as US Deal Reopens Flows

Russia's diesel position is the clearest two-way bet in the energy complex right now. Rosneft told Bloomberg this week that the losses from Ukraine's refinery strikes are becoming "unsustainable" (Kyiv Independent, Oct 23), and the standing strike tracker sits current through the Oct 20 hit on a Druzhba pipeline pumping station. And yet the same week, Russia sent its first diesel tanker to the United States under a Trump-brokered deal (Al Jazeera, Oct 21; CNBC, Oct 21). The policy transmission, more Russian product on the global market, runs straight against the physical transmission, less Russian refining capacity. That collision is the reason US diesel still hangs near $6.18 a gallon, up 6…