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Energy Ceasefire Collapse: Diesel Crack Holds Near $113

Published October 16, 202625 min read
Refinery processing units and storage tanks at dusk, with a small industrial flare in the distance.
A refinery scene evokes the renewed risk to diesel supply after the energy ceasefire collapsed. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

The White House energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine fell apart inside a week, and the market is repricing that collapse through refined products rather than the raw barrel. Brent settled at $106.65 a barrel on Monday, its highest since Sept. 15, and was near $105.2 with WTI around $95.8 into Friday, yet the durable signal is the distillate crack: the heating oil crack held elevated near $113 a barrel even as a widening set of policy moves tried to relieve the diesel squeeze.

Key Takeaways Trump declared an "energy ceasefire" on Oct. 11; Ukraine observed a de facto three-day pause, then resumed refinery strikes on Oct. 15, hitting the Ryazan refinery. The Russian Defense Ministry and R…

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