Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.
Russia's resumed refinery campaign pushed the barrel's war-risk premium near $27 and Russian diesel exports down roughly three-quarters year over year. The reserve release blunts the squeeze, it does not end it.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
A tanker was hit about 25 miles off Oman and crude's geopolitical bid came straight back. The question now is whether $103 can hold if Hormuz quiets again and the Ukraine strike pause holds.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Copper price held $6.57, up 0.47%, even as the dollar topped 102 and the 10-year neared 5%. Learn what the resilient industrial bid means for metals investors.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Oil prices eased from six-month highs Monday as Qatari de-escalation talks cooled crude's conflict bid while Houthi strike risk kept the $20/bbl premium.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Oil near $115 has repriced the Fed's path: December hike odds near 76% on Kalshi, the 10-year spent the week above 5%, and one CPI print now separates the Fed from its December decision. Here is the mechanism behind the reprice.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
The Defense Production Act oil determination lets Washington back U.S. refining and pipelines with federal capital. Learn what it means for the SPR and crude.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
A Ukrainian drone strike on Russia's Druzhba pipeline network was attributed to a key crude node near Tambov after Governor Yevgeny Pervyshev confirmed the overnight attack and fire, tightening the products picture that has pushed US diesel to $6.28, up 73% from a year ago.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
LME copper climbed 0.57% to $14,420.50 a tonne as a softer dollar and scarce China spot cargoes gave the red metal a tailwind, with the Yangshan warrant premium sitting at $138 a tonne.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Front-month West Texas Intermediate tagged a $110.48 session high in early trading Tuesday as Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said two tankers were set ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz, putting crude on track for a ninth straight session of gains and a roughly 20% monthly rise before WTI pulled back in later trade.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Gold holds near $4,140 in Tuesday trading as trimmed October-hike odds back the metals bid, and silver trails at a 72x gold/silver ratio with room to catch up.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
WTI slipped to near $97.38 even as Kyiv's largest drone raid yet, more than 1,000 drones deep, set fires at the Petersburg Oil Terminal and Ruchyi oil depot. Washington's waiver of Russia tariffs and sanctions is the offset the market is pricing.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
The DOE is reaching into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the seventh time since the war began, but the loan economics that mostly emptied the June tranche still stand between the headline and the pump.
David Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst