Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.
July payrolls fell 23,000 and September Fed hike odds collapsed toward zero. The dollar hit a 7-week low as gold pushed near record highs.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
July CPI Wednesday is this week's only cross-sector catalyst: no FOMC, no Fed speeches. Levels to watch in stocks, gold, silver, oil, and crypto.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
Russia's crypto settlement law goes live September 1 in the same six week window as the EU's toughest sanctions package yet, OFAC dismantled Iran's Hormuz insurance racket, and central banks bought gold at a 62% faster pace. Three separate headlines, one architecture.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
July CPI, three Treasury auctions totaling $125 billion, PPI, retail sales, and earnings from Cisco and Applied Materials headline the week of August 10.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
Fed Governor Lisa Cook signaled on August 6, 2026, she is prepared to raise rates if inflation does not moderate. With CPI at 3.7% and equities surging the next day, here is what the market is pricing and what it may be missing.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
July NFP consensus stands at +88K. Here is the reaction function across Treasuries, the dollar, equities, and crypto before Friday's 8:30 AM ET print.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
Consensus expects +88K nonfarm payrolls and 4.2% unemployment for July 2026. With June missing at +57K and the FOMC split 9-3, Friday's jobs report is the last key input before the September 16-17 Fed decision. Here's the reaction function.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
Friday's July Employment Situation report is the most consequential labor market data point before the Fed's September 16-17 decision. Consensus expects +88K payrolls and 4.2% unemployment. Here's the reaction function across rates, gold, equities, and crypto.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
US-Iran-Oman talks near a Hormuz corridor deal, pushing September hike odds to 57%. What it means for oil prices, CPI, and your portfolio.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
The FOMC's 9-3 vote is the most divided since 2016. FRED data backs the soft-landing thesis. Friday's July NFP is the variable that decides September.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
Three FOMC members voted for an immediate rate hike on July 29, and CME FedWatch now prices a 56.9% probability of a September hike. With Q2 GDP at 1.5% and June payrolls at 57,000, the stagflationary data configuration puts the Fed in its most difficult position of the current cycle.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
June JOLTS job openings came in at 7.359 million, missing the 7.420 million consensus by 61,000. Combined with a downward revision to May and the June payrolls miss, the data describes a labor market cooling faster than anticipated.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst