Hormuz Deal Nears: What It Means for Oil and Inflation
A partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is now closer to reality than at any point in the 150-plus days since the crisis began, and the consequences for oil prices, consumer inflation, and the Federal Reserve's September calendar are already registering in markets. US-Iran-Oman negotiations are closing in on a corridor agreement that would allow limited tanker traffic through the strait. The 10-year Treasury yield has retreated from its July 31 peak of 4.75% to 4.62%, and September hike odds have dropped from roughly 67% to 57% in the past week (per Bloomberg Television, August 4-5, 2026; Trading Economics, August 6, 2026). Key Takeaways US-Iran-Oman talks are nearing a partial Hormuz co…
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