July Jobs Miss Sends September Fed Hike Odds Toward Zero
Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July, the first outright monthly decline this expansion, and September rate hike odds went from the base case to an afterthought inside a single week. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2%, but that drop came from a shrinking labor force, not a hiring surge: participation slipped to 61.4% (BLS USDL-26-1291, released August 7).
Key Takeaways July nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000, the first outright monthly decline this expansion, with May and June revised down a combined 103,000 (BLS, August 7). September hike odds on CME FedWatch have collapsed from roughly two-thirds a week ago to near zero, with a hold now the base case near 60% probability. The dol…
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