Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.
FOMC rate decision, Microsoft, Meta, Apple, Amazon earnings, Q2 GDP, PCE inflation, and oil shock risk: a complete preview of the week ahead for investors.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
Alphabet's free cash flow turned negative for the first time in years, Nvidia locked down SK Hynix's entire HBM output in a reported $500 billion deal, and a new "subprime datacenter" thesis is asking whether GPU cluster values are built on circular financing. This week, the AI capex supercycle stopped looking like a unanimous bet.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
June CPI fell to 3.5% and PPI dropped 0.3% MoM in the same week, pushing CME FedWatch hold probability to 66.3% ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Here is what the data says and what to watch next.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
Oil climbed on Middle East supply fears while Bitcoin pushed above $65,000 on cooling inflation data. Here is what moved markets on Thursday and what to watch heading into next week's FOMC meeting.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
June inflation fell sharply to 3.5% on energy price declines. Here is what that means for mortgage rates, portfolios, and the July 28-29 Fed meeting.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
June FOMC minutes reveal a hawkish undercurrent: a few members argued for a hike, the Fed dropped its easing bias, and core PCE climbed to 3.4%.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
Headline CPI fell to 3.5% on a gasoline price collapse, but Fed Chair Warsh is not declaring victory. The Iran wild card may reverse everything by August.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
Iran-Hormuz tensions drove Friday's Dow -400. Here is the setup for July 20 week: oil levels, Alphabet/Tesla earnings, Bitcoin $62,500 support, gold at $4,000.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
Tech giants committed $700B to AI data centers while Nvidia sold off and a TS Lombard economist urged Fed tightening. What the week's signals mean for rates, equities, and energy.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
June CPI fell to 3.5% YoY (from 4.2% in May) as NFP added only 57,000 jobs in June. A strong disinflation signal, complicated by the Iran energy shock. What both prints mean for the July 28-29 FOMC.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
June advance retail sales rose 0.2%, missing the +0.4%-+0.6% consensus and pointing to a consumer taking a breath after May's outsized beat. The print keeps the Fed on hold but raises new questions for Q3 GDP tracking.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
June CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, the sharpest monthly decline since April 2020, pulling the annual rate to 3.5% from 4.2% in May. Here is what the data means for markets today.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst