June CPI Drops to 3.5%, Jobs Growth Stalls at 57K: What This Week's Data Tells Us
Two headline data prints this week arrived together and told a coherent story, then a third event arrived three days later and muddied it. June CPI fell to 3.5% year-on-year, down from May's 4.2% spike, with core CPI at 2.6% and the monthly reading at a flat 0.0%. Nonfarm payrolls added only 57,000 jobs in June, well below the pace of prior months, while unemployment held at 4.2%. On the surface, these numbers build a credible case for a September rate cut. Then, on July 14, renewed hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz sent oil up 9% in a single session, threatening to erase the very disinflation the Fed has been waiting to validate. Key Takeaways June CPI fell to 3.5% year-on-year (from…
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