June CPI Surprise and What It Means for the July 29 FOMC Decision
June's consumer price index came in well below expectations, and the headline number looked almost too good to be true. It was, in part, because of where it came from. Headline CPI dropped to 3.5% year-over-year in June, down from 4.2% in May, after gasoline prices fell 9.7% for the month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, printed flat at 0.0% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year against a consensus of 2.9%. Key Takeaways June headline CPI fell to 3.5% YoY from 4.2% in May, driven almost entirely by a 9.7% monthly collapse in gasoline prices, per BLS data released July 14. Core CPI printed flat MoM at 2.6% YoY, 30 basis points below…
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