June CPI and PPI Cool Together, Shifting Fed Rate Odds Ahead of July FOMC
For the first time since late 2024, the two headline inflation readings arrived in the same week and pointed in exactly the same direction. June CPI fell to 3.5% year-over-year, down from 4.2% in May. June PPI dropped 0.3% month-over-month, the steepest single-month decline since April 2025. CME FedWatch, which priced a 35% probability of a July hold before the data landed, now prices a 66.3% hold probability for the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Markets face a binary event in five days. Key Takeaways June CPI fell to 3.5% year-over-year (from 4.2% in May), per the Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 14, 2026. June PPI final demand dropped 0.3% month-over-month, driven by a 12.0% decline in gasoline…
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