Refining 12% offline: cracks, not crude, define the shock

Crude at six-month highs is the headline. The underlying story that matters is a different number entirely: roughly 12% of world refining capacity for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel is offline across Russia, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE, knocked out by drone and missile strikes, according to Industrial Info Resources, cited by The Wall Street Journal on Oct 26. That is the defining supply fact of this regime, because it means even a full recovery of crude production would still leave fuel markets short until those damaged units run again, and war-damaged plants come back in quarters, not weeks. Key Takeaways About 12% of world refining capacity for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel is offline…