Treasury Quarterly Refunding: $125 Billion, Sizes Flat

The Treasury's November 4 quarterly refunding statement sold $125 billion of new coupon debt to refinance about $97 billion of notes and bonds maturing November 15, and it held nominal coupon and floating-rate auction sizes flat for the next several quarters. The sale is the first refunding priced against the fiscal calendar this desk ran on November 3: a debt limit re-imposed around a $41.1 trillion ceiling and a December 11 funding deadline. The decision that matters for the curve is not the auction sizes themselves, which barely changed, but what the statement left open. The Treasury dropped the word "at least" from its supply guidance and deferred any long-end reduction into an unspecifi…