Strait of Hormuz event markets after tanker strike: blockade-end odds climb to 13.5%

Today's mine strike on two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude to a session high, but the contracts that price how this disruption resolves moved only modestly. Polymarket's contract on the United States announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by October 31 rose from 9.5% at 12:00 UTC to 13.5% by 16:08 UTC on Tuesday, October 20, a +4.0-point move across the strike's news cycle, not the jump a six-dollar crude spike might suggest. The broader year-end settlement, which asks whether Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31, held at 13.5% YES, roughly an 86.5% implied probability that it does not. That is the tell of this market: the physical barrel repriced sharply on the at…