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Oil prices hold $105 as unverified ceasefire meets fresh Hormuz risk

Published October 13, 202623 min read
An unmarked oil tanker crosses dark water at dusk beneath a hazy shoreline.
Tanker traffic remains a focus of concern as shipping risks support oil prices. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Brent is sitting on a $105 handle with a war premium that is still widening, and the reason cuts two ways at once : a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire that nobody has independently verified, and a Middle East supply picture that keeps adding fresh risk. Brent settled $106.65 on Monday, its highest since 15 September, before drifting to about $105 in Tuesday trading, with WTI around $93 and the Brent-WTI spread holding near $13. That unusually wide margin is itself the tell. The international market is paying an escalating penalty to own delivery risk over the domestic one, and the spread is where this whole story is written before flat-price does anything.

Key Takeaways Brent settled $106.65 M…

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