macro

Two-thirds October hike odds face the PCE and payrolls test

Published September 28, 20264 min read

Line chart of US 10-year Treasury yield, last 90 days (percent) on a dark background — With core PCE and September payrolls due this week, markets are holding two-thirds odds of an October Fed hike on a knife's edge. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

The final week of Q3 opens with the market carrying unusually firm odds that the Federal Reserve hikes again on October 28. Implied probability of a 25 basis point move at that meeting is running near two-thirds across prediction venues, Polymarket at roughly 65 percent and Prime Terminal and FXStreet sources at about 64 percent, per the research desk. Two prints will do the most to decide whether that repricing holds, and they land back to back: core PCE on Wednesday and the September employment report on Friday. Both sit close enough to a knife that the swing in either direction is what traders will actually trade this week, not the consensus number itself.

Key Takeaways Market-implied odds…

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