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NY Fed Inflation Expectations Rise to 3.9%

Maya Reyes
Maya ReyesCost of Living Correspondent
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published October 8, 20266 min read
Groceries, sealed envelopes and apartment keys rest on a modest kitchen table in soft window light.
A household still life evokes concern about rising everyday costs and spending that may outpace income. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Households lifted their one-year inflation outlook to 3.9% in September, the highest since May 2023, while expected nominal spending growth rose to 5.5%. The New York Fed’s latest survey points to a squeeze that may persist even as job anxiety eased: expected household income growth was just 3.1%, and respondents said their finances had worsened.

Key Takeaways One-year inflation expectations rose to 3.9% in September 2026, up 0.3 percentage point from August. Households expected nominal spending growth of 5.5%, above the 5.0% trailing average. Expected income growth was 3.1%, leaving a 2.4 percentage point gap versus spending expectations. Rent, food and gasoline price expectations all increa…

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NY Fed Inflation Expectations Rise to 3.9% | MarketIntelLabs