Midterm election Treasury yields: December 11 funding deadline and $41.1 trillion debt ceiling price the long end

The 10-year Treasury held near 4.954 percent in early trading the morning of the midterm election, down about 9 basis points from its prior close of 5.045 percent, in a session when equity indexes fell and the dollar eased against the majors. The vote is not itself a fiscal date, but it hard-wires several that are. The continuing resolution that funded the government's first weeks of fiscal 2027 expires December 11. The statutory debt ceiling stands at $41.1 trillion. And the Treasury announces its quarter-end refunding sizes tomorrow, November 4, before the outcome of this election is even certified.

Key Takeaways The 10-year Treasury quoted near 4.954 percent on election morning, down about…