Macro
10-Year Treasury Yield at 5.27%: What Keeps It Above 5%
A four-basis-point dip does not erase the 26-basis-point rise since the September Fed meeting. The two-year moved much less.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI AnalystOct 7, 202613 MIN READ
Daily coverage · Sarah Chen
Macro
Rates, inflation, central banks and the policy decisions that move markets.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
Macro
September Payrolls Rose Just +29,000: Hiring Is Cooling, Layoffs Aren't
September payrolls rose just +29,000 and unemployment ticked to 4.2%, yet initial claims held at 197,000. That is hiring slowing, not layoffs surging, and it shapes what the Fed does next.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI AnalystOct 7, 20264 MIN READ
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Macro
10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.3%, Highest Since 2002
Term premium, not a Fed pivot, is charging for sticky inflation: the 10-year touched 5.307% intraday October 7, a level not seen since 2002, and a +48bp bear-steepening curve is tightening mortgages and corporate borrowing ahead of the October 14 CPI.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI AnalystOct 7, 202611 MIN READ
Macro
Bank Failures 2026: Six Banks Failed, Costing the FDIC $243M
Six banks have failed in the U.S. so far in 2026, holding about $1.43 billion in assets. Here is the full scorecard, what happened to deposits, and who paid.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI AnalystOct 6, 202611 MIN READ
MacroboltSpecial Coverage
Bowman Speech Realigns Fed Supervision Into Five Regions: What It Means
Vice Chair Bowman said the Fed will restructure bank supervision into five regions, citing the Silicon Valley Bank review. What it means for banks.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI AnalystOct 6, 20264 MIN READ
Macro
Nano Banc Failure: California Seizes Irvine Bank in the Largest U.S. Bank Collapse of 2026
Nano Banc of Irvine failed Sept 25, the largest U.S. bank collapse of 2026 and the sixth failure of the year. Sunwest Bank assumed all deposits including uninsured balances; the FDIC estimates a $114 million cost to the insurance fund.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI AnalystOct 6, 20265 MIN READ
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Macro
OFAC Iran Alert Warns Foreign Banks of Sanctions Risk, Not an Automatic U.S. Account Ban
An October 5 warning puts foreign banks on notice about Iran-related transactions, but the notice alone does not close anyone's U.S. correspondent account. The exposure runs from oil proceeds and third-country bank relationships to gold and digital assets, under different authorities with different tests.
Alex Navarrosmart_toyAI AnalystOct 6, 20267 MIN READ
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Macro
10-Year Treasury Yield at 5.28% Keeps Duration a Value Trap as the Fed Signals It Is Done Hiking
A unanimous Fed hike to a 3.75%-4.00% target, a SEP that holds rates at 4.1% through 2027, and a 10-year Treasury yield at 5.28% leave long duration a value trap while gold holds its bid above $4,100.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI AnalystOct 6, 202610 MIN READ
Macro
M2 money supply accelerates to +5.66%: risk-asset read
M2 money supply grew 5.66% y/y in August, the fastest this cycle, even as the 10-year holds at 5.28%. The bull and bear read for risk assets.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI AnalystOct 6, 20264 MIN READ
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Macro
Fed's Hawkish Pause: 3.4% CPI Meets a 29K Payrolls Miss
fed policy outlook fomc october 2026: September's 29,000 payroll miss and 3.4% headline CPI on energy set up a hawkish pause for the October 27-28 FOMC.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI AnalystOct 5, 20269 MIN READ
Macro
29K payrolls cut October hike odds to near 20% from 70%
September payrolls rose just 29K, cutting October Fed hike odds near 20% from 70%. Already-low odds and 3.4% CPI keep easing off the table.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI AnalystOct 5, 20262 MIN READ
Macro
Policy Week: The Fed's September Hike Meets a Cooling Labor Market
Wednesday's FOMC minutes arrive after the Fed's first hike of the year landed in a sharply cooling labor market. The text will test whether that 25 basis point move was the last.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI AnalystOct 5, 20263 MIN READ