Daily coverage · Sarah Chen

Macro

Rates, inflation, central banks and the policy decisions that move markets.

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July FOMC: Three Dissents, Sticky Inflation, September Decision Ahead

July CPI data reveals sticky inflation as the Federal Reserve faces internal dissent. Learn what this means for September rate decisions and how Treasury yie...

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 18, 202611 MIN READ

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Macro

Yen Carry Trade Deleveraging: CFTC Positioning Flip and Cross-Asset Risk

CFTC data shows a 205,600-contract JPY positioning reversal in a single week after coordinated US-Japan intervention. USD/JPY is back at 159.45 and the carry trade is rebuilding.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 17, 20265 MIN READ

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Macro

Yen at 163 and FOMC Minutes: What Wednesday Decides

FOMC Minutes drop Wednesday as September Fed hike odds hit 63%. What the July 28-29 dissent tone means for USD/JPY and Japan's currency defense.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 17, 20263 MIN READ

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Macro

Week Ahead: Fed Minutes, Retail Earnings Set the Tone

The Fed's July minutes, four retailer earnings, and gold near key technical levels headline a data-light but decision-heavy week for markets.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 16, 20265 MIN READ

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Macro

The Weekend Brief: Inside the AI Capex Cycle, Who's Financing the Buildout

Federal Reserve data show equipment investment climbing 31.6% year over year as Super Micro and Lumentum rally on capex-driven guidance beats, while Meta's stock fell 10% on capex growth that outpaced revenue.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 16, 202613 MIN READ

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Macro

July Retail Sales: What It Means

July retail sales fell 0.6% to $763.6 billion and the control group missed consensus, the sharpest monthly slowdown in a year even as year-over-year spending held at 5.0%.

Aug 14, 20265 MIN READ

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Macro

July CPI Lands Below Consensus, Fed Odds Reprice

July CPI rose 3.30% y/y, below the 3.4% consensus. SPY and QQQ gained as Fed hike odds for September eased; GLD slipped on a firmer dollar.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 14, 20265 MIN READ

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Macro

Gold Slips 0.75% to $4,387 as Dollar Holds Near Weekly High

Gold, silver, oil and copper all eased Friday as the dollar held near a one-week high, giving back part of Wednesday's CPI-driven rally.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 14, 20262 MIN READ

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Macro

RRP Near Zero: The Liquidity Squeeze Behind July's Fed

July CPI and payrolls send conflicting signals into the September FOMC, but the sharper data point is plumbing: RRP near zero and M2 at 5.53% y/y.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 14, 20261 MIN READ

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MacroboltSpecial Coverage

July PPI: What It Means

July PPI missed consensus on every measure: headline cooled to 4.69% y/y against a 5.0% forecast, core eased to 4.16% against 4.7%, extending June's downside surprise.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 13, 20264 MIN READ

Three data charts on a dark background: Nonfarm Payrolls (bar chart), CPI Year-over-Year (line chart), and M2 Money Supply (area chart).

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Macro

July Payrolls Fall 23K as Fed Weighs Hormuz Inflation Risk

July payrolls fell 23,000 with a 103,000 revision down as CPI held at 3.4%. Three FOMC dissenters cite Hormuz energy risk to the Fed's rate path.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 13, 20269 MIN READ

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Macro

Fed's No-Guidance Bet Keeps Rattling Bonds as Labor Cools

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's move to end forward guidance has lifted bond-market volatility even as equities shrug it off, with a cooling labor market and AI-capex warnings stacking up underneath a complacent tape.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 13, 20262 MIN READ

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