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July Payrolls Fall 23K as Fed Weighs Hormuz Inflation Risk

Published August 13, 20269 min read
Three data charts on a dark background: Nonfarm Payrolls (bar chart), CPI Year-over-Year (line chart), and M2 Money Supply (area chart).
Recent trends in nonfarm payrolls, CPI, and M2 money supply show fluctuating economic indicators. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

July's jobs report and July's inflation report told two different stories about the same economy, and the Federal Reserve's own July 29 meeting minutes show three officials already picked a side. Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 last month against a consensus call for an 80,000 gain, with a combined 103,000 knocked off the May and June counts, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' "Employment Situation, July 2026," released August 7. Five days later, the BLS "CPI Summary, July 2026" showed headline inflation rising a tame 0.1% on the month, 3.4% year over year. One report says the labor market is buckling. The other says prices are behaving. The Fed cannot fully believe both at once, and…

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FOMC Meeting 2026 Weighs July Payrolls Drop and Hormuz Risk | MarketIntelLabs