macro

Fed's No-Guidance Bet Keeps Rattling Bonds as Labor Cools

Published August 13, 20262 min read
Illustration of a grand, gold-colored classical building with columns against a dark blue background, with a light gray foreground
The Federal Reserve building, a symbol of monetary policy decisions. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's decision to scrap forward guidance at the July 29 FOMC meeting is doing what a policy regime change does: it is repricing risk before anyone agrees on the new rules. The 10-year Treasury yield sits at 4.68% on Thursday, down from a 52-week high of 4.75%, and Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk's read is that Warsh's logic is sound even as the execution is unfinished.

Key Takeaways The 10-year Treasury yield has eased to 4.68% from a 52-week high of 4.75% since Fed Chair Kevin Warsh ended forward guidance at the July 29 FOMC meeting, but Apollo's Torsten Sløk says the Fed still needs a clearer replacement framework to calm the volatility the change introduced. July payr…

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How the Fed's No-Guidance Bet Rattles Bonds as Labor Cools | MarketIntelLabs