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Yen Carry Trade Deleveraging: CFTC Positioning Flip and Cross-Asset Risk

Published August 17, 20265 min read

Editorial illustration of a golden rope coil unwinding into loose strands on a deep navy background — Speculative yen positioning unwinds: the carry trade lets go of its leverage Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

The yen carry trade did not blow up in the week of August 7. It shook, shed 205,000 contracts of speculative positioning, and then started rebuilding. That sequence, more than any single exchange rate print, is the signal worth reading carefully right now.

For more on yen intervention dynamics, see our analysis of Yen at 163 and FOMC Minutes . Key Takeaways USD/JPY rebounded to 159.45 as of August 13, 2026, after hitting a post-intervention low of 155.20, and traders are probing the 160 level again. CFTC speculative JPY futures positions swung from net short -163,400 contracts on August 7 to net long +42,100 contracts on August 14, a 205,600-contract reversal in a single week and the largest…

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