Jobless Claims Fall to 189,000, Matching July's 57-Year Low

Initial jobless claims fell to 189,000 in the week ending October 31, a drop of 6,000 that ties the mid-July reading, the lowest weekly count in decades. The print came in below the roughly 196,000 the market expected and leaves the U.S. layoff rate pinned at its rarest level of the current cycle.

The print: 189,000, and what revised

The Labor Department report, released Thursday November 5, showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits at 189,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis, a 6,000 decline from the previous week. The week ended October 24 was revised up by 1,000, to 195,000, so the headline disguises a slightly firmer starting point: the raw drop is 6,000 off a revised 195,000, not off the 194,000 first reported.

Related reading: Jobless Claims Hit 196,000, a 1960s-Level Print Firms Are Not Firing.

The number matters because it equals the mid-July trough. That July reading was widely described at the time as the lowest weekly count since the late 1960s, and today's print pulls the series back to that same floor. Seasonally, the fourth quarter usually carries a small upward bias in claims as holiday hiring shifts and the weather turns; this October has not shown it.

The trend: averages all point down

Put the single week aside and the smoothing measures tell the same story. The 4-week moving average declined to 194,750 from 197,000 the prior week. Monthly averages are progressively lower: 206,000 in August, 200,500 in September and roughly 195,400 in October. A year ago the comparable week showed claims near 228,000, so the current level runs about 17 percent below where it sat this time in 2025.

For the broader framework, see our Fed policy coverage.

Related reading: Weekly Jobless Claims Hold at 194,000; Continuing Claims Slip to Lowest Since Early October.

The one soft spot is on the continuing side. Seasonally adjusted continuing claims rose 23,000 to 1.718 million in the week ended October 24, the first meaningful increase in a month. That step up is small, but it is the series to watch: falling initial claims with rising continuing claims would signal that laid-off workers are finding it harder to return, which is not yet the case at these levels.

What is dated next

The next hard data point on the beat is the October employment report, due Friday, November 6. September payrolls came in at a modest 29,000 after downward revisions, while the unemployment rate held at 4.2 percent. The claims floor is relevant to that read: a labor market shedding workers at a near-record-low weekly rate is not one that is breaking, even if monthly hiring counts have been soft.

Related reading: Initial Jobless Claims Actual: 194,000 Before Nov. 5 Update.

After that, the next initial claims release covers the week ending November 7 and lands on Thursday, November 12.

Why this matters

A 57-year-low layoff rate next to a slow-hiring payrolls report is the defining tension in the labor market right now. Firms are hoarding workers rather than cutting them, which keeps the layoff channel quiet but does not by itself rebuild the hiring channel. For markets, the practical read is a resilient economy that is giving the Federal Reserve little reason to treat the jobs side as an urgent problem, regardless of how Friday's payroll number prints. The risk sits on the continuing-claims side, and it is currently one step up in a still-low series, not a trend.

Related reading: Jobless Claims Stay Below 200,000 as Continuing Claims Rise to 1.716 Million.

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