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Why grocery inflation can be 2.4% while beef runs at 9.4%

Cuts of beef sit beside vegetables and an egg carton in a supermarket shopping cart.
Beef takes center stage in a grocery basket that also holds everyday staples. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Beef prices are on track to rise 9.4% in 2026, even as the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects grocery prices overall to climb 2.4%. That gap is the household story: a relatively calm grocery inflation average can coexist with a sharp increase in a frequently purchased staple, and the next Consumer Price Index report will show whether August’s uneven pattern persisted into September.

Key Takeaways USDA’s September 25, 2026 forecast puts 2026 beef and veal inflation at 9.4%, versus 2.4% for food at home. BLS reported grocery prices unchanged month over month in August 2026, while USDA’s summary put beef 5.9% above its August 2025 level. September CPI is scheduled for October 14, 2026, and w…

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Why grocery inflation can be 2.4% while beef runs at 9.4% | MarketIntelLabs