Diesel Holds a 4.5% Bid as Crude Gives Back Its War Premium

Oil spent the first nine months of the year repricing risk, and the last three weeks repriced it again as the market weighed an actual conflict against an actual barrel. Crude finished September with Brent up about 14 percent, the biggest monthly gain since July, as the Persian Gulf escalation pushed a conflict premium into nearly every contract. Then the premium started leaking. Saudi Arabia restarted its East-West Pipeline, loadings resumed at Yanbu, and Gulf exports roughly doubled in the space of a month. Brent slipped about 1.1 percent to the high $90s while WTI gave back about 1.3 percent toward $89. The market that actually moves goods, though, is watching something else entirely. Ref…