Russian seaborne diesel loadings are down 81%. The record crack is where the war premium lives.
Russian seaborne diesel and gasoil loadings are running about 81% below their five-year average, and the US ultra-low-sulfur diesel crack sits near a record $106 a barrel versus roughly $30 a year earlier. Brent eased about 2% to the low $98s and WTI to near $94.7 on hopes Middle East barrels come back faster, yet the refined product refused to follow: this is a two-tier market where crude sheds war premium and the diesel crack keeps climbing, because refining margins are the transmission channel between the supply shock and the price at the pump. The bottleneck is no longer barrels in the ground. It is the plants that turn them into fuel.
Key Takeaways The ULSD crack is near a record $104 to…
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