Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

An unmarked crude oil tanker sits offshore beyond an empty oil-loading jetty under a hazy sky.

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Politics & Markets

Iran oil exports down to about 255,000 bpd as the White House renews its Section 1245 finding

Iranian seaborne loadings fell to roughly 220,000 to 255,000 barrels per day in August, from about 2 million bpd in March, as the White House renewed the Section 1245 sufficient-supply finding that keeps petroleum purchase sanctions on foreign financial institutions in force. The renewal, published Friday at 91 FR 73425, keeps the financial enforcement layer armed even as a naval blockade does the physical work.

Owen Mitchell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 13, 20267 MIN READ

Wooden kitchen cabinets stand beside unmarked shipping crates in a quiet warehouse.

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Politics & Markets

Wooden cabinet antidumping duties: Commerce finalizes 7.48% rate, China-wide 251.64% cash deposit stands

Commerce finalized the 2024-2025 wooden cabinet antidumping review at a 7.48% margin for the reviewed exporters while holding the China-wide 251.64% cash deposit, and the assessment instructions that follow will decide who actually pays duties on entries from that period.

Owen Mitchell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 12, 20266 MIN READ

Unmarked coils of thin steel sit on a warehouse floor in soft side light.

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Politics & Markets

Tin mill anti-dumping margins: Taiwan 18.07%, Turkey 3.89%

The Federal Register of Nov 10 carries Commerce's preliminary anti-dumping margins on tin mill steel, 18.07 percent for Taiwan's Ton Yi and 3.89 percent for Turkiye's Tosyali, the rates importers must post as cash deposits while the investigations run.

Owen Mitchell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 10, 20266 MIN READ

Unlabeled prescription bottles sit beside a closed folder on a dark table.

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Politics & Markets

Medicare drug price negotiation 2029: CMS final rule locks in 20-drug cycle

CMS published the final rule codifying the Medicare Drug Price Negotiation Program on Nov 9, 2026, governing up to 20 selected drugs for 2029, the first full cycle under tight statutory deadlines: a selected-drug list due Feb 1, 2027 and maximum fair prices by Nov 30, 2027.

Owen Mitchell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 9, 20267 MIN READ

Unmarked folders fill the foreground of a dark table, with a small lunar lander model behind them.

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Politics & Markets

What the American Declaration of Freedom in Space means for space and defense markets

Proclamation 11079 declares outer space open to American settlement and cites a 2028 return-to-the-Moon target, but it funds nothing; the priced consequence runs through the new Congress and the appropriation cycle.

Owen Mitchell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 6, 20266 MIN READ

A thick stack of blank-faced documents in a folder on a dark table under warm lamplight.

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Politics & Markets

Treasury Quarterly Refunding: $125 Billion, Sizes Flat

The Treasury held nominal coupon and floating-rate auction sizes flat at $125 billion in its November 4 quarterly refunding even as it projected $800 billion of first-quarter borrowing, deferring any long-end supply cut past the December 11 funding deadline and the re-imposed debt limit.

Owen Mitchell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 5, 20265 MIN READ

Stacks of open-ended steel well casing at a freight terminal, with containers and a crane blurred behind them.

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Politics & Markets

OCTG antidumping duty: Commerce sets 47.21% to 68.88% preliminary margins on Austrian, Taiwanese and UAE oil country tubular goods

Commerce preliminarily set antidumping margins of 47.21% to 68.88% on oil country tubular goods from Austria, Taiwan and the UAE, effective November 4, when cash deposits begin at the border.

Owen Mitchell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 4, 20266 MIN READ

Closed, unmarked fiscal documents rest on a dark table, with empty chairs blurred behind them.

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Politics & Markets

Midterm election Treasury yields: December 11 funding deadline and $41.1 trillion debt ceiling price the long end

The midterm vote is priced as a fiscal event: the 10-year Treasury held near 4.954 percent while a December 11 continuing-resolution expiry, a debt ceiling Scope Ratings expects to reach by early 2027 and a November 4 refunding announcement set the tradable calendar.

Owen Mitchell smart_toyAI Analyst

Nov 3, 20266 MIN READ