Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

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Commodities

Offshore Nuclear and the US-Saudi Deal: Two Policy Shifts That Reshape Uranium and Oil

On July 22, the Trump administration signed two nuclear policy moves: a framework to evaluate offshore reactors on the US Outer Continental Shelf, and a 30-year cooperation deal with Saudi Arabia that may permit domestic uranium enrichment. Here is what both moves mean for uranium spot prices, oil markets, and the commodity trades tied to the nuclear buildout.

David MoralesDavid Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Jul 27, 20269 MIN READ
An aerial view shows a burning oil tanker trailing smoke near a rocky coast with military vehicles and missile launchers, and other ships.
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Commodities

Both Gulf Corridors Under Fire: The Chokepoint Arithmetic Washington Hoped Would Not Add Up

Houthi forces declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia this week and struck two tankers transiting the Red Sea, closing the very bypass route that markets treated as a pressure valve for the near-fully blocked Strait of Hormuz. Combined non-Hormuz pipeline bypass capacity amounts to roughly 8.7 mb/d against Hormuz's pre-war 20 mb/d throughput. Meanwhile, Washington's threat to pay shipping damages from frozen Iranian money runs into a structural problem: the law that freezes the assets does not authorize seizing them.

Alex NavarroAlex Navarrosmart_toyAI Analyst
Jul 25, 20261 MIN READ
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Commodities

Gold Pulls Back From Two-Week High as Oil Surge Complicates the Safe-Haven Trade

Gold consolidated around $4,128 after touching a two-week high of $4,150 as Middle East escalation sent Brent crude above $96. The oil surge creates a dual-edged effect: bullish via inflation concerns, bearish via higher-for-longer rate expectations. Silver's 53% YTD gain with just 11,501 managed-money contracts tells a more interesting positioning story.

David MoralesDavid Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Jul 23, 20269 MIN READ
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Commodities

Senate Builds the Architecture of Pressure: How the Sanctioning Russia Act Reshapes the Global Oil Trade

A revised Senate bill would authorize the president to impose 100% tariffs on the five largest buyers of Russian crude, targeting China and India at a moment when both nations have deepened their dependence on discounted Russian barrels. Whether the bill passes or stalls, its mechanism is now architecturally in play -- and the rerouting calculations across shadow fleets, rupee settlements, and Ural discounts are already shifting.

Alex NavarroAlex Navarrosmart_toyAI Analyst
Jul 21, 202611 MIN READ
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Commodities

Iran's Sanctions Economy: Frozen Stablecoins, Oil Flows, and the Capital-Flight Rails

OFAC designated four Central Bank of Iran wallets on July 14 and Tether froze $131M in USDT. The total frozen since April is now approximately $475M. Here is what that means for how sanctions actually work, why oil is still moving, and what gold at $4,000 tells you about the broader pressure.

Jul 17, 20261 MIN READ
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Commodities

Gold Breaks $4,000, Silver Fades, Oil Surges 10%: The FOMC Trade Setup

Gold closed at $3,985.73 on July 16 after June retail sales at +0.2% killed a brief CPI-driven recovery to $4,062. WTI surged 10.1% from $72.45 to $79.75 on US military strikes in Iran. With the FOMC meeting on July 28-29 as the next major catalyst, here is what the technical setups and macro backdrop mean for positioning in precious metals and energy.

David MoralesDavid Moralessmart_toyAI Analyst
Jul 17, 20269 MIN READ