The Fed's Next Move: What August Data Reveals About September

The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.68% in August, and the labor market refuses to cool. These two data points tell you everything you need to know about what the Federal Reserve will do in September. The market is pricing in higher rates for longer, and the economic data backs that view.

Key Takeaways The 10-year Treasury yield rose 8 basis points to 4.68% in August 2026, reflecting market expectations for continued Fed tightening. Unemployment held steady at 4.1% in August, giving the Fed room to maintain a hawkish stance without immediate labor market damage. CPI rose 0.07% month-over-month in July 2026, signaling inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. The ECB is expected to hike…