Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

Several people in suits sit at a large polished conference table; some on the right side have their hands raised as if voting.

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Macro

Fed Holds Rates But Three Dissenters Signal September Hike Risk

Three FOMC members voted for an immediate 25bp hike on July 29, the first three-dissent outcome since 2016. With core PCE at 3.3% and Polymarket pricing a 67.5% chance of a 2026 hike, September is now a live decision. Full cross-asset analysis.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 4, 202610 MIN READ

An illustration of a balance scale with a crumbling gold bar and oil drop on the left, and a shining spool of copper wire on the right.

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Macro

Gold's Post-Iran Washout, Oil's Supply Shock, and Copper at Record Highs

Gold has lost 27% from its February 2026 war peak of $5,461/oz as the dollar strengthens under a hawkish new Fed Chair. WTI crude's 16.85% Hormuz rally is fading. Copper sits 1.7% below a 52-week high, supported by AI infrastructure demand and mine-supply deficits. Here is what the positioning data tells us about where all three go next.

David Morales smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 3, 20269 MIN READ

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Macro

Fed Hold, Three Hawks Dissent: The Macro Regime Heading Into August

Three FOMC members voted for an immediate 25bp hike on July 29. June CPI beat consensus at 3.5%, but energy drove the decline while core PCE held at 3.3%. With GDP at 1.5% and payrolls at 57,000, the macro regime has shifted toward stagflationary risk. Full analysis with six asset signals.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Aug 3, 20269 MIN READ

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Macro

FOMC Hawkish Hold: What the 9-3 Fed Vote Means for Rates Through Year-End

The FOMC held rates at 3.50-3.75% for the fifth straight meeting, but a 9-3 dissent with Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan voting for an immediate hike signals that September is genuinely open. The 30-year Treasury at 5.21% is the bond market's verdict on a different question entirely.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 31, 202610 MIN READ

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Macro

FOMC's 9-3 Vote Is the Most Divided Fed Since 2016. Here's What That Signals.

Three regional Fed presidents dissented for a 25bp hike on July 29, 2026, making it the most divided FOMC decision since September 2016. What the vote composition signals about September.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 30, 20269 MIN READ

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Macro

What Three Fed Dissents Actually Mean for Markets

Three FOMC officials voted to raise rates on July 29, 2026. They lost 9-3. The last time three dissented simultaneously was September 2016. Here is what that history says about September.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 30, 20269 MIN READ

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Macro

Fed Holds but September Hike Odds Hit 82%: What the FOMC Decision Means for Markets

The Fed held at 3.50%-3.75% on July 29, but CME FedWatch now prices an 82.2% chance of a September hike. Sarah Chen dissects the CPI/PCE divergence and what it means for equities, bonds, and gold.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 29, 20268 MIN READ

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Macro

OFAC Clears 84 From Sanctions List and Opens a Digital Exit Ramp: What It Means for Banks and Designated Parties

Treasury's second round of SDN modernization removed 84 individuals and entities on July 27 while simultaneously launching a formal online portal for delisting petitions. The move codifies a structural shift in how OFAC defines sanctions success, and forces compliance officers to update their screening logic immediately.

Alex Navarro smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 28, 20261 MIN READ

Three charts on a dark background: Fed funds rate falling, nonfarm payrolls fluctuating, and 10-year Treasury yield moving erratically.

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Macro

The Fed's Stagflation Trap

The Federal Reserve heads into its July 28-29 FOMC meeting with its dual mandate in open conflict. June nonfarm payrolls came in at 57,000 versus 115,000 consensus while CPI runs at 3.5% and PPI at 5.5% year-over-year. Chair Kevin Warsh holds at 3.50-3.75% but the 10-year yield is already at 4.69%.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Jul 27, 202610 MIN READ

An cargo plane is being loaded with AI chips and military hardware on an airport tarmac with Dubai skyline and an oil rig in the background

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Macro

BIS Reclassifies UAE to A:5: How a Gulf Pivot Rewires US Defense and Energy Export Architecture

On July 10, 2026, the Bureau of Industry and Security rewrote the rules governing US exports to the UAE, elevating the Gulf state to Country Group A:5, a tier previously reserved for formal treaty allies, and creating a new entity-specific approval framework that channels AI chips, military hardware, and oil-field equipment to approved Gulf institutions. The action formalizes a two-year strategic convergence linking the Iran campaign, a $1.4 trillion investment commitment, and the world's largest planned AI data center into a single regulatory instrument. No Gulf state has ever achieved this classification.