Research & Analysis

CPI Day Tests a Two-Session Tech Pullback as Energy Leads

S&P 500 fell for a second session as capital rotated into energy and utilities ahead of July CPI, with Kalshi pricing a cooler print than consensus.

Warsh's Fed Split 9-3 Hawkish Ahead of July CPI Print

July CPI lands today as the swing data point for a Fed caught between a 9-3 hawkish FOMC split and the first payroll contraction in over a year. Here is the range of paths for Chair Warsh's committee.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit $853.5M as BTC Holds Five-Week Range

Gold and Silver Break Out on Central Bank Buying, CPI Risk

GLD is up 7.2% and SLV 11.6% off early-August lows as record central bank gold buying meets a dovish Fed repricing, with Wednesday's CPI print the next swing factor for a crowded managed-money long book.

Gold at $4,417 as CFTC Positioning Data Lags a Two-Week Rally Into CPI

Gold spot hit a fresh record near $4,417/oz Tuesday, up 10.38% over the trailing month, but the last CFTC positioning read is a week stale. Here is what that gap means going into Wednesday's CPI print, plus the copper and oil setups riding alongside it.

Q2 Earnings Expose a Valuation Gap Between Growth Stories and Cash Flow

Q2 earnings season is splitting the market into two camps: high-multiple growth names facing valuation scrutiny even after beating estimates, and cash-rich, guidance-raising mid-caps getting rewarded with fresh highs. Energy's 4.66% day is the clearest sign that rotation is happening beneath a flat index tape.

September Fed Hike Odds Round-Trip From Zero to 63% on Warsh, Oil

September Fed hike odds swung from near zero right after the July jobs miss to 55-63% by August 10, as Chair Warsh's hawkish rhetoric and an oil-price spike tied to Strait of Hormuz tensions outweighed the labor data. Wednesday's CPI print decides which story wins.

Bitcoin ETF Inflows Hit a 2026 High as Spot Price Lags

US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $853.5 million last week, the strongest since mid-April, while spot BTC fell 1.8% to $63,943 and sentiment stayed stuck in Fear. Here is what the flow-price gap and swinging Fed odds mean into the September FOMC.

BTC, ETH ETF Inflows Turn Positive as Fear Index Holds at 30

US spot Bitcoin ETFs booked five straight days of net inflows worth $865 million and Ethereum ETFs matched the reversal with $256 million, but the Fear and Greed Index has not budged from 30. Here is what the gap between institutional flows and retail sentiment means for BTC and ETH into the September FOMC.

Sector Rotation Broadens as S&P 500 Nears Record Highs

SPY closed at $773.26 and QQQ at $723.03 as 9 of 11 S&P sector ETFs advanced, with Technology, Consumer Discretionary and Materials leading. The rally is being driven by a weak July jobs report boosting Fed rate-cut odds, but a VIX-put/call divergence signals institutions are still hedging.

Gold's $4,300 Breakout: CFTC Positioning, Miner Divergence and What Comes Next

Gold is holding $4,300 after a 7%+ weekly rally sparked by a weak jobs report, and CFTC data shows positioning isn't crowded yet. GDX and GDXJ ripped 7% as miners closed a wide gap to spot. Copper and oil carry their own tariff and Hormuz risk premiums into Wednesday's CPI print.

Fed Policy Repricing After the July Jobs Miss: Labor Cracks vs. Sticky Inflation

July nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000, the first outright decline this expansion, with a 103,000 combined downward revision. September hike odds collapsed even as core PCE held at 3.29% and M2 grew 5.53% year over year. Here is the labor-cracks case against the sticky-inflation case, and what the August 12 CPI print decides.