Research & Analysis

Gold at $4,453, Copper at ATH: Reading the August 17 Commodities Tape

Gold futures settled at $4,453.50 on August 17, copper printed a new all-time high at $6.74, and WTI crude faces a supply-demand standoff at $80. Full CFTC positioning, central bank data, and price targets for all four major commodities.

AI Infrastructure Thesis Meets Fed Risk: What Anthropic's $11.5B Quarter Means for Equity Positioning

Anthropic's Q2 2026 revenue hit $11.5 billion, a 14x year-over-year gain. But the sector tape on August 17 tells a more complex story: Energy and Industrials are leading while XLK pulls back. Here is what the rotation, the breadth data, and the Fed risk say about equity positioning.

Yen Carry Trade Deleveraging: CFTC Positioning Flip and Cross-Asset Risk

CFTC data shows a 205,600-contract JPY positioning reversal in a single week after coordinated US-Japan intervention. USD/JPY is back at 159.45 and the carry trade is rebuilding.

OFAC's Aug. 7 Iran Crypto Sweep Reveals a Five-Jurisdiction Shell Pattern: Dubai, Hong Kong, Georgia, Poland, Singapore

RRP Near Zero: The Liquidity Squeeze Behind July's Fed

July CPI and payrolls send conflicting signals into the September FOMC, but the sharper data point is plumbing: RRP near zero and M2 at 5.53% y/y.

BTC ETF Flows Turn Negative as SEC Delays Reg Crypto Meeting

US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a net outflow of roughly $96.2 million over four sessions, reversing an early August inflow streak, as the SEC postponed its Reg Crypto meeting with no new date and Ethereum's DeFi TVL held structural leadership at $41.2 billion.

Tech Leads a Record Tape, But the Hedging Cushion Is Thin

The S&P 500 hit a record 7,816.70 intraday on August 13 as tech (XLK +1.01%) and communication services (XLC +2.07%) led, backed by ~50% y/y Q2 earnings growth. But VIX at 14.63 and a call-heavy 0.59 put/call ratio leave the market with a thin hedging cushion, and today's Applied Materials report is the next test of the AI-capex thesis behind the rotation.

Central Banks' Record Gold Buying Outruns Crowded Longs

Record central-bank gold buying and a 21-month PBOC streak point to a structural floor even as CFTC data shows managed-money longs stretched after the CPI pop.

Bitcoin Stalls Near $63,700 as ETF Flows Turn Choppy

Bitcoin held near $63,500 to $63,900 after an in-line July CPI print, with spot ETF flows swinging to a $61 million outflow and stablecoin supply flat near $306.6 billion.

July Payrolls Fall 23K as Fed Weighs Hormuz Inflation Risk

July payrolls fell 23,000 with a 103,000 revision down as CPI held at 3.4%. Three FOMC dissenters cite Hormuz energy risk to the Fed's rate path.

Tech Rally Meets July PPI Test as Small Caps Try to Join In

Tech (XLK +1.49%) and small caps (IWM +0.57%) lead an AI-earnings-driven rally as equities await today's July PPI print, whose consensus estimates conflict across data providers ahead of Applied Materials' earnings.

Gold Holds $4,408 as Managed-Money Longs Hit 130,766

Gold holds $4,408/oz as COMEX Managed Money net longs jump to 130,766 contracts, Brent slips to $88.37 on a Hormuz standoff, and copper sits near record highs after a Grasberg-linked smelter outage.