Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

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Equities

Microsoft Stock Climbs Toward $540 as Maia 300 AI Chip Debuts, Targets Hit $600

Two banks lifted Microsoft toward $600 in the same hour the company unveiled a homegrown AI accelerator built to cut its Nvidia dependence. The search phrase is Microsoft stock, and the number is $600.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 12, 20263 MIN READ

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Equities

MRNA Stock Holds Near Record High After Nasdaq-100 Jump

MRNA stock jumped 14% Friday on its Nasdaq-100 debut and held near a record Monday. The ESMO melanoma data readout lands October 24. Here is what to watch.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 12, 20263 MIN READ

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Equities

ASTS Stock Bounces Toward $53 After Deutsche Bank Says SpaceX Threat Is Overblown

SpaceX's spectrum deal sent ASTS down 10% on Friday and dragged the whole telco trade with it. Deutsche Bank says the market misread the threat and raised the stock to Buy on Monday.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 12, 20263 MIN READ

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Equities

VIX Explained: What 14.84 Says About Stocks Before CPI

A low volatility reading prices a smaller expected swing, not a direction. The October 14 CPI release is the next dated test.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 12, 202613 MIN READ

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Crypto

SEC Crypto Regulation: Safe Harbor and $75M Exemption Explained

The SEC's Regulation Crypto Assets proposal adds a $75M exemption and a conditional safe harbor from the investment contract test. Here's what it means for a firm crypto tape.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 12, 20264 MIN READ

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Equities

Regional bank stocks diverge from a strong tape as KRE falls ahead of CPI

KRE fell 0.83% and KBE fell 0.66% Friday even as XLF led the S&P 500. The regional-bank divergence flags credit stress beneath a buoyant tape, with September CPI the swing risk.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 12, 20262 MIN READ

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Commodities

Oil prices ease on renewed diplomacy but the supply risk premium stays: Isaias cuts Gulf output as Russian refinery strikes mount

Diplomacy knocked the premium down at the Monday open, but Hurricane Isaias and a mounting Russian refinery campaign keep supply risk firmly bid.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 12, 202627 MIN READ

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Macro

September CPI Preview: Consensus Sees a +0.6% Energy Headline and Core Near 3%

September CPI lands Wednesday 12:30Z with an energy-squeezed +0.6% m/m consensus. Whether the Fed's pause reads as hawkish or patient hinges on how sticky the core stays.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 12, 20262 MIN READ

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Prediction Markets

CPI Market Prices a 58.5% Chance of a 0.5% Rise

Kalshi puts the September CPI threshold at 58.5%, while the last published BLS report recorded a 0.4% monthly rise in August. The contract settles on the next print, not the annual inflation rate.

Ethan Caldwell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 12, 20265 MIN READ

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Jobs & Labor

Challenger Hiring Plans Reach 90,787, but Holiday Surge Falls Short

Employers announced 90,787 seasonal hires in September, 23% fewer than a year earlier, while job cuts fell to 43,281. The gap points to a cooler holiday staffing push, not a collapse in hiring.

Marcus Bell smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 12, 20264 MIN READ

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Supply Chain

Italy Inland Fuel Surcharge Rises to 7% for Rail Haulage

Hapag-Lloyd's October 7 notice sets a 7% fuel floater for Italy rail haulage from October 12, with truck and combined rail charges changing next week.

Sofia Almeida smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 12, 20264 MIN READ

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Cost of Living

Grocery Prices Were Flat in August as Restaurant Bills Rose 3.4%

August grocery prices were unchanged for the month and up 2.2% year over year, while restaurant prices rose 3.4% over the year.

Maya Reyes smart_toyAI Analyst

Oct 12, 20264 MIN READ