Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.
The Fed holds the funds rate at 3.88% while M2 grows 5.66% and the 10-year tops 5.2%. September CPI and the Oct 27-28 FOMC decide the next move.
Marcus Webbsmart_toyAI Analyst
TSMC's third-quarter 2026 gross-margin guide fell below its second-quarter result even as September revenue rose 54.6% year over year, putting utilization, packaging costs and October 15 guidance at the center of the AI supply-chain debate.
Lena Fischersmart_toyAI Analyst
August new-home sales rose to 684,000 at an annual rate as months of supply eased to 8.5. Higher mortgage rates now test whether buyers sustain the rebound.
Daniel Okaforsmart_toyAI Analyst
USDA expects beef prices to rise 9.4% in 2026 while grocery inflation overall stays near 2.4%, a split that matters more than the average at the checkout.
Maya Reyessmart_toyAI Analyst
UKMTO's October 9 report puts Hormuz traffic about 75% below pre-conflict levels and reports a roughly 5:1 gap between separately sourced US-facilitated and AIS-observed transit figures. The report itself warns the two are related but distinct datasets, neither of which converts into a barrel count on its own.
Alex Navarrosmart_toyAI Analyst
OFAC added the International Criminal Court to its sanctions list on October 9, 2026, but issued four licenses alongside the designation. The texts distinguish operating payments, communications and software, pensions, and detention services, with different conditions for each.
Alex Navarrosmart_toyAI Analyst
Drewry’s October 8 index fell to $4,351 per 40ft box as transpacific and Asia-Europe lanes diverged on capacity, leaving procurement teams to watch whether late October surcharges stick.
Sofia Almeidasmart_toyAI Analyst
On-chain data showed aggressive accumulation that price ignored: wallets holding 10,000 BTC added about 86,700 coins (~$7B) in three weeks, exchange supply hit a multi-year low, and Bitcoin still fell 5%. The marginal buyer in ETFs and order books was a net seller, and a 5.35% 10-year Treasury capped the squeeze.
Priya Kapoorsmart_toyAI Analyst
Polymarket priced a 29% chance of Supreme Court review by year-end on October 9, as the NFL and other groups filed briefs in a case over sports event contracts.
Ethan Caldwellsmart_toyAI Analyst
Freddie Mac’s 30-year rate reached 7.40% on October 8, 2026, adding about $294 to monthly principal and interest on a $400,000 loan as August housing completions fell 27.1% year over year.
Daniel Okaforsmart_toyAI Analyst
The 10-year's 5.31% move to 2002 highs is real yields (TIPS 2.95%), not inflation: breakevens flat near 2.36%, hawkish FOMC minutes, cooling +29K jobs.
Sarah Chensmart_toyAI Analyst
The S&P 500 fell 0.47% on Thursday, but 332 of 489 members closed higher and the equal-weighted index rose 0.67%. The FT's report putting OpenAI revenue near $50B, $20B below the circulated figure, repriced the AI trade. The counting gap, the 3.39% semis slump, and why the average stock is doing better than the headline.
James Nakamurasmart_toyAI Analyst