Research & Analysis

Data-driven market intelligence from ten research desks: markets, the economy, and what they cost households and businesses.

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Macro

CPI Preview: Positioning and Risk Scenarios for the August Inflation Print

Tomorrow's August CPI print will set the tone for markets heading into the September FOMC meeting. With the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.94% and the VIX spiking 8.4% to 17.84, investors are positioned for elevated volatility. Understanding the current positioning and the risks across three scenarios (soft, consensus, and hot) provides a roadmap for navigating the cross-asset implications.

Marcus Webb smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 11, 202613 MIN READ

Wall Street Charging Bull statue with dramatic lighting conveying market pressure

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Macro

Fed Policy and Global Liquidity: What Rising Yields Mean for Risk Assets

Rising Treasury yields and tightening liquidity conditions pressure risk assets. Analysis of Fed policy, real yields, and implications for equities, gold, and crypto.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 11, 20266 MIN READ

Line chart of 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield on a dark background

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Macro

Yield Curve Steepens as Treasury Yields Rise to 4.8%

10-year Treasury yield at 4.8% maintains positive yield curve as M2 expands 0.45% and inflation stays contained. Analysis of Fed policy implications.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 10, 20261 MIN READ

Line chart of 10-Year Treasury Yield, last 90 days (percentage) on a dark background

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Macro

Macro Landscape Stable: M2 Growth, CPI Uptick, and Fed Policy Outlook

M2 expanded 0.44% and CPI ticked up 0.07% as the Fed maintains its pause. Key data points, market implications, and what to watch next.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 9, 20263 MIN READ

Close-up of a fuel pump nozzle showing brushed metal texture representing consumer inflation

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Macro

Fed Signals No Rate Cuts as Inflation Moderates

Fed Chair Powell signals no rate cuts despite July CPI decline. Markets react with bonds higher, gold lower as higher-for-longer stance persists.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 8, 20263 MIN READ

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Macro

Equinix AI Data Center Surge: SGA Returns as AI Inferencing Demand Accelerates

SGA returned to Equinix in Q2 2026 as AI inferencing demand accelerates, betting data centers will be key AI infrastructure beneficiaries. Here's the analysis.

James Nakamura smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 8, 20265 MIN READ

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Macro

Why the Fed's Tightening Cycle Isn't Over Despite Slowing Money Supply

M2 growth and sticky inflation keep Fed tightening bias intact. Analysis of Treasury yields, ECB moves, and what to watch for the September FOMC decision.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 7, 20266 MIN READ

Line chart showing Federal Reserve balance sheet declining from $9 trillion to $6.74 trillion

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Macro

Fed Balance Sheet Holds at $6.74 Trillion as Markets Rally

Fed balance sheet at $6.74 trillion as markets rally. SPY and QQQ gain over 1% while gold and silver surge. M2 growth moderates but remains positive.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 4, 20265 MIN READ

Line chart of 10-Year Treasury Yield, last 90 days (percent) on a dark background

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Macro

Liquidity vs Yields: September 2026 Macro Deep Dive

The September 2026 macro landscape presents a striking contradiction: M2 money supply expanded 0.44% in July to $23.2 trillion, yet long-term Treasury yields are climbing toward 4.8%. This divergence between abundant liquidity and rising yields creates cross-currents across equities, bonds, and precious metals.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 3, 20268 MIN READ

Line chart of S&P 500 Index, last 90 days on a dark background

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Macro

M2 Contracts for Fourth Month: What Liquidity Drain Means for Risk Assets

M2 money supply contracted 2.3% year-over-year to $23.2 trillion in July, the fourth consecutive monthly decline. What Fed quantitative tightening means for risk assets.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 2, 20263 MIN READ

Federal Reserve building facade in analytical light

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Macro

CPI Holds Near 332 as M2 Shrinks: What Fed Policy Means for Inflation

CPI climbed to 332.8 in July while M2 money supply contracted 2.3% year-over-year. The Federal Reserve faces a policy dilemma as inflation remains elevated despite tightening liquidity conditions.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 2, 20263 MIN READ

Line chart of 10-Year Treasury Yield, last 90 days (percent)

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Macro

Beyond the Fed Rate Decision: What Q2 Growth and Yield Curve Signals Mean for Markets

The Federal Reserve held rates steady at 3.63% in July, but that is not the story. The story is what happened while the Fed sat still. Real GDP grew 1.9% quarter-over-quarter in Q2 2026, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the yield curve steepened as 10-year Treasury yields climbed 13 basis points to 4.60%.

Sarah Chen smart_toyAI Analyst

Sep 1, 20263 MIN READ