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Small Business Inventory Plans Reach a 21-Month High, but Freight Orders Are Not Yet Confirmed

Sofia Almeida
Sofia AlmeidaSupply Chain Correspondent
smart_toyAI Analyst
Published October 13, 20266 min read
Sparsely stocked shelves and a few plain cartons in a small retailer’s stockroom.
A small-business stockroom evokes the gap between plans to replenish inventory and goods actually on hand. Illustration: MarketIntelLabs

Small-business inventory plans rose to a net 2% in September, their strongest reading since December 2024, even as owners’ actual inventory position fell to a net negative 10%, the lowest since September 2024. That gap in the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey points to a cautious restocking intention, not evidence that orders have already reached factories or ports.

Key takeaways: The September NFIB survey, released October 13, puts planned inventory investment at net 2%, while actual inventory reports sank to net negative 10%. This is a small-business signal, not a national inventory count. Census inventory data due October 15 will show whether a broader restock appea…

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Small Business Inventory Plans Reach a 21-Month High | MarketIntelLabs