Nike Stock Downgraded to Sell by Goldman Sachs as Target Falls to $27.50

Analysts at Goldman Sachs downgraded Nike stock to Sell on October 6, cutting their price target to $27.50 from $49.00 and amplifying a selloff that has erased more than half the share price over the past year. The downgrade arrived as the shares hovered near a 13-year low after the company's first revenue miss in seven quarters.

Goldman's analysts, in a note published the morning of October 6, said Nike "appears to have accepted a smaller place in sportswear," according to Investing.com. The firm pointed to the company's plan to organize around smaller focus areas, which it read as an admission that market structure has shifted irreversibly against Nike. Lower barriers to entry, the analysts argued, force incumbents to compete with a growing number of challengers across fragmented niches or else give up share.

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The damage is starkest in China. Despite being the core of the company's turnaround effort since late 2024, sales there are set to contract for at least another quarter, and a recovery is not assured because rebuilding the brand takes years of re-educating consumers. The sportswear category, just under half of group sales, fell by a low-double-digit percentage in the first quarter, while the Jordan line dropped by a mid-teens percentage, according to the Investing.com report.

Berenberg delivered a similar verdict the same morning, cutting Nike to Sell from Hold and setting the same $27.50 price target, according to Investing.com. The convergence of two fresh Sell ratings follows S&P Global Ratings' decision to cut Nike's credit rating to A from A+, with the agency projecting negative free cash flow over the next two to three years and consolidated revenue to contract by more than 7% in fiscal 2027.

For the broader framework, see our gold coverage.

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The numbers behind the analyst calls come from Nike's fiscal first-quarter report, released in late September. Revenue missed expectations for the first time in seven quarters, though the company posted a slight beat on gross margin and earnings per share, helped by high single-digit growth in performance products. Management guided fiscal 2027 revenue down in the high single digits, with adjusted earnings per share between $1.15 and $1.35.

In premarket action on October 6, Nike shares traded near $33.66, roughly 1% lower, and they were changing hands just above $34 in Tuesday trading, according to Investing.com and Yahoo Finance data. That left the stock just above its 52-week low of $31.97, set on October 2, against a 52-week high of $71.58. The shares are down more than 50% over the past year.

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The downgrades matter beyond Nike alone. A stock once treated as a premium growth holding now carries a dividend yield close to 5% and a market capitalization of roughly $50 billion, a reminder that a decade of brand dominance can reprice quickly when product cycles and competition turn. For the roughly 480,000 retail investors who hold the stock, per exchange data cited by investors and media, the question is whether the restructuring plan that Goldman says brings little help until fiscal 2029 is worth waiting out.

What is dated next: Nike's fiscal second-quarter results, due in December, will show whether the share-holding strategy stabilizes sportswear and whether China stops shrinking. Until then, the register moved to two banks calling the stock a sell at the same $27.50 target, which is now the level the market has to decide is wrong.

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