Does the lumber duty cut lower new-home prices? Tens of dollars, not thousands

Commerce cut the countervailing duty that most Canadian softwood lumber importers post by 1.39 percentage points this morning, a trade reset that reads far larger in lumber politics than it does inside a new home. Measured against what a build actually costs, the relief is on the order of tens of dollars, not thousands. On the Q3 median sale price of $432,900, the direct duty-carry is roughly $17 to $25 per home even under the most generous assumptions. That is a small positive for a builder's input-cost ledger, and it is not an affordability fix. The data does not support the headline.

The reason lives in the affordability math. At a 7.24 percent 30-year mortgage, the principal and interest…