Single-Family Starts Rebound to 918,000, but Permits Say It Stops Here

Single-family housing starts jumped 7.6 percent in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 918,000, the Census Bureau and HUD reported on September 17, even as the 30-year mortgage rate printed 7.03 percent that same morning. Builders broke ground on more homes at the worst borrowing cost since November 2023. The permit line says the rebound stops here: single-family authorizations fell 1.8 percent to 878,000, and permits are the only start in the release that reliably predicts the one after it.

Key Takeaways Single-family starts rose 7.6 percent to 918,000 SAAR in August (Census/HUD release CB26-147, September 17, 2026), but the Census 90 percent interval on that move is plus or minus…