
Hormuz Ceasefire Lapses: Oil's Fourth Straight Rally
Brent crude ran $91.72-$92.36 on August 19 as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire lapses and Hormuz transit sits near a standstill. Here are the support, resistance, and cross-asset levels to watch.
Daily coverage · David Morales
Gold, silver, oil, copper and agriculture: supply, demand and price levels.

Brent crude ran $91.72-$92.36 on August 19 as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire lapses and Hormuz transit sits near a standstill. Here are the support, resistance, and cross-asset levels to watch.

Chariot Resources jumped 39% on a China lithium term sheet, but Albemarle, SQM and Rio Tinto traded flat to lower the same session.

Brent trades $6.20 above WTI while Murban crude surged 9.26% in a single session. The spread reveals a geopolitical risk premium and a structural divergence between the two crude benchmarks.

Brent at $91.43, WTI at $85.37, Murban up 9.26% to $97.70 on August 18, 2026. The Strait of Hormuz disruption briefly pushed oil above $100/bbl before Iran signaled a partial reopening. Here is what the benchmark divergence, the $6.20 Brent-WTI spread, and simultaneous gold strength at $4,450 say about the macro stress building underneath the market.

Gold trades at $4,390/oz after its best monthly gain since January, backed by record Q2 central bank buying of 289 tonnes and hedge fund longs at an 11-month high. The structural bid is real. So is the crowding risk.

Copper printed a new all-time high of $6.74 per pound while gold futures cleared $4,453. Silver outpaced both metals on a session basis, and WTI crude held above $80 support.

Energy Transfer Q2 EBITDA surged 31% to $5.07B and full-year guidance rose to $18.8-$19.1B. Delek Logistics raised distributions for the 54th straight quarter. WTI holds $82.46 but a 17.4M-barrel inventory build caps upside.

Gold futures settled at $4,453.50 on August 17, copper printed a new all-time high at $6.74, and WTI crude faces a supply-demand standoff at $80. Full CFTC positioning, central bank data, and price targets for all four major commodities.

Energy Transfer Q2 EBITDA surged 31% to $5.07B and DKL raised distributions for the 54th quarter, but a 17.4M-barrel crude inventory build caps WTI near $82.

SPY and QQQ extended Thursday's record close into Friday trading, with the VIX near 14.6 and call-heavy options flow backing a tech and communication-services led tape.

Record central-bank gold buying and a 21-month PBOC streak point to a structural floor even as CFTC data shows managed-money longs stretched after the CPI pop.

Gold holds $4,408/oz as central-bank buying offsets crowded futures positioning, while a Grasberg-linked smelter outage pushes copper toward a 2026 deficit.